Days of Change

Day 1310 – 7%

One of the Obama media’s talking points about the blowout in Wisconsin is the exit polling. Even an anti-recall electorate supported Obama over Romney 51%-44%. Dick Morris would point out that the most important number is the top line for president. If support for Obama falls below 50%, he’ll probably lose. Still, the 7% lead of Obama in Wisconsin is fully half of the margin of victory he had in 2008.

Let’s look at the electoral vote totals of 2008. If Obama loses 7% of his lead like he did in Wisconsin, it would be the margin of victory in the following states.

North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
Ohio
Virginia

Given the changes in Congressional representation, the margin of victory would be only 273-265. If we expand the loss slightly to 9%, Colorado would be in the Romney column and he would win the Electoral College by 10 Electors. It’s not a matter of winning voters over. Romney is within the margin of error for Obama’s defeat. It is now a matter of maintaining a lead.