Days of Change

Fear of Missing Out | March 23, 2018

There are essentially three political groups in the US right now, Trump, the liberal Democrats and the “swamp” Republicans. Back in 2016, I really thought Trump’s luster would fade as he went after Bush and the Iraq War. This was during the Republican primaries, after all. Instead, there is a major identity crisis within the party because politicians can’t connect with their own party.

One of the less enthusiastic Republicans in Congress, Senator Bob Corker, explained that fellow Republicans campaigning are being asked about their loyalty to Trump and not about positions on specific issues. If a Republican is opposed to most of Trump’s agenda, they are either retiring, keeping their mouth shut, or voting for the pieces they like (tax cuts). Public opposition means losing a primary and Congress members are choosing retirement instead.

What’s interesting about support for Trump is that while it is low, it is across the board. In the 2016 primaries, it was between 35% and 45% among Republicans. His approval rating is also in the high 30’s to low 40’s. In the largest national poll of the presidency, the election itself, Trump got 46% of the popular vote. That 46%, however, included 90% of Republicans. Donald Trump is the leader of the party, and most of the party’s support stems from him.

To some extent, every Republican running for reelection has to support Trump. Given that, the only question is how many seats will the GOP lose in November to Democrats? It could be none, it could be enough to lose the House, or it could be enough to lose both houses. After that, we will see if the Swamp wins.

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