Days of Change

Percentages | November 13, 2016

I’m still waiting on numbers, like this supposed 2 million Electoral Vote victory by Clinton that’s supposed to materialize. I’ll look at percentages instead.

One of the most discussed is the 42% of women that Trump drew compared to the 54% of White women. In fact, White liberal woman have been hand-wringing and multi-ethnic liberal women have been revolting. So, if you look at the 70% of American voters who are White, it seems a pitiful 23% of non-White women voted for Trump. But hold on a second. Let’s split this group one more time. You see, Black men and women have historically voted 95% or so for Democrats. Accounting for that, women of groups other than Black or White voted at just below 40%. Yet again, the Black vote is the Democratic base, while other ethnic groups just lean Democratic.

Also, this election was close as hell. If you looked at state polls, the states Trump needed were only 2-3% in Clinton’s favor. There was a margin of error at play. In the end, Trump’s success came down to 3 states where his margin of victory is between 0.2 and 1.2%. For my part, I believed in the ground game theory that Democrats could bus people in on the day of the election in key swing states. The reality is that the Clinton campaign spread their resources too thin, trying to get a big win.

The good news is that old White people didn’t rise up on the way to the grave. Trump made gains in the Hispanic and kind of made gains in the Black vote. However, a lot of Democrats were not bused to the polls, something that can be easily corrected in 2018 or 2020.


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