Days of Change

Return of the Jedi | November 9, 2016

I’m pretty happy about this.

There’s something called the observer effect that says watching an event changes it. At a certain point, the people who supported Trump chose to stop talking to pollsters because polls were using 2012 numbers to discount their votes anyway. With cell phone usage way up and other polling methods almost impossible, the LA Times may have been the big winner, using a huge master sample being sub-sampled to show trends. They said Trump was ahead, and by God, he was.

Except for maybe Kellyanne Conway, no one really knew Trump would win. He and his supporters wanted him to win. Clinton supporters made the mistake of ignoring that the margin of error could go in the Trump direction. In fact, Trump is ahead by about 1% nationally. I’ve been writing that Trump was going to lose for about a year now. Even if I don’t like Trump and think he’s a terrible person, I sure as hell didn’t want Hillary to become president, though.

In the case of Hillary, the fundamental rules apply. Longer than Trump has run for president in 2015, I’ve said people don’t like Hillary Clinton. We learned that tonight. I think people like me, who voted third-party, also helped in that victory. Trump will probably not clear 50%, something that hasn’t happened in 16 years.

I guess the blog may continue for a while. This is just too entertaining.


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    2016 Polls

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