Days of Change

Still Indifferent After All These Months | October 23, 2016

After the election 4 years ago, I wrote it was all over. Nothing has really changed that opinion. First we have Hillary, who is sort of like Obama, except that she has lived the political world longer than Obama has been alive. Winning with less than 50% of the popular vote (a distinct possibility) would not make her moderate her administration. Instead, it would encourage her to hit the gas pedal in case the Republicans get more or Congress, or get it back in 2018.

Hey, who’s kidding? This is about Donald Trump. Had the Democrats had control of the nomination process, they might have tried to get someone slightly more marketable than Hillary Clinton. Given her tendency to annoy everyone and the glaring failures and flexible ethics displayed by her and her family, a change should have been in order.

Instead, we have Trump. I’m not sure if the worst part for me is that he’s showing all the symptoms of a loser or that he’s nothing like the Republican president that I want. I suppose both are connected. On fear alone, I want Trump to win over Hillary. In the long-term, the GOP seems to put on their big boy pants best after a crushing loss, and that coupled with Trump exiting the stage, might spell grudging reform in the party.

Depending on where you look, Trump can win if he manages to swing +5% in polls with a margin of error of about 4%. No matter what pundits say, margin of error is not only real, but probably bigger than the statistically calculated sigma based on number of respondents. Still, the Brexit theory would have to hold up. Trump voters, not just supporters, have to be silent, but motivated. Clinton spent a lot of money to get early voting and registration up. Trump has sheer force of will.

There are mostly cons to any outcome of this election, except for a possible tie-breaker in the House of Representatives where Evan McMullin wins because he got 6 Electoral Votes in Utah. Otherwise, I remain indifferent.


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