Days of Change

It Will Likely Be a Tight Race | August 30, 2016

We’re a couple of months out from Election Day and the polls that people have either been citing or disputing are making a turn for the worse. Each side has been looking for a blowout. One was hoping for a massive, Reagan-style wave where America wanted to go in a different direction. The other was looking for a massive repudiation of a flawed candidate to give their flawed candidate a reprieve. Then there are the ones who want an epic loss to change their own party.

Regardless of wishful thinking, there may be very little daylight in this election. What we see in the polls is reality setting in. Party affiliation is getting near 90% in both parties, meaning that if you are a Democrat or a Republican, you have decided that you want your party’s or ideology’s candidate to win the election, even if you’d rather seen them fall down a manhole in the street  a month ago.

Once the polls get within 4% between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, it’s going to be a tie for all intents and purposes. That’s when the real contest begins because everything starts to change on a daily basis and only the groups doing constant polling and data collecting will even try to game the system. Or they could just hack the voting machines.

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