Days of Change

Donald Trump Has the Best Rallies… and Nothing Else | August 14, 2016

Donald Trump’s father Fred Trump made money by owning real estate. Donald made money from real estate. He’s obviously not a self-made man. However, Trump has built a flimsy empire on the use of his own name, either in deals or simply licensing his name to real estate seminars known as “Trump University” or any number of foreign manufactured products. His fame is his one claim to fame.

Being a rich person all his life made Donald Trump aware of how much people want things from rich people. Most of the wealthy avoid the poor and the working class because of those demands. Trump decided to cultivate their desires to satisfy his ego. Now, we’ve reached the pinnacle of that relationship. Donald Trump is running for president by making people think he can give them something and poor people supporting him because he has things and is beholden to no one.

As it stands today, Trump is behind slightly in national polls and behind heavily in state polls. If you believe that all the polls are biased, maybe Trump would use his massive influence to produce Trump University polls or maybe start a Trump Wins Everything polling agency. Respondents who choose Hillary Clinton over Trump can expect to be sued, called a failure and face hoards of supporters threatening them on social media.

Since alternative polling would cost money, most Trump supporters fall back to the massive rallies he holds and how that somehow represents the landslide coming. Now, I get to use math.

I’ve seen estimates all over the place for events, from five thousand to thirty thousand. Let’s use a baseline of 15,000, which is pretty big and a weekly number of 4 (he only has 2 next week). Lets’ say there are 14 weeks in the general election season. That would be 60,000 people a week and a total of 840,000 people going to Trump rallies, assuming most people only go to one.

In the last presidential election, 129 million voters cast ballots. 840,000 represents 0.65% of that total. Gary Johnson had more people than that vote for him. If we triple the attendance, which would make every rally more highly attended than any actual Trump rally, we would still have less than 2% of the electorate.

During the primaries, Trump stuck out in a field of multiple Republican politicians. His 30% floor of support won him a number of winner-take-all contests. 20,000 people going to a rally on Monday and voting in a primary on Tuesday made a difference. It may be fun to compare a packed stadium full of Trump supporters to a half empty banquet hall of Hillary Clinton supporters, but she’s having the last laugh. She is spending campaign money on ads that will be seen by more people in a day than all the Trump rallies attended this year.

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