I tend to eschew historical perspective for factoids about politics. So, let’s look at nominees for president over the past 40 years. Candidates fall into two categories, brand new or getting their due. Incumbents also get their due, but parties are generally afraid to drop them regardless.
Of the 20 candidates in 10 races from 2 parties, 7 ran as incumbents (2 lost). 6 were given their due (Vice Presidents and close finishers in years past) and all but one lost. 7 were either new to the contest or unexpectedly won (like Reagan in 1980) and 5 actually won the presidency.
People like the new hotness. Given that standard, Hillary Clinton is old and busted and only has a one in six chance while Trump has about a five in seven chance. Being ready (or listo, for Tim Kaine) and battle tested doesn’t mean crap. Then again, the guy who was given his due and won was George H.W. Bush who got the unqualified endorsement of his president.
Back to the title. In 2008, Katy Perry blew up the music scene dressing like a pin-up girl and singing in her husky voice about kissing girls on the sly from her boyfriend. That same summer, Hillary Clinton was facing the fact that she would have to concede the Democratic primary to Barack Obama, even though she got more primary votes. The party was against her, however, and Hillary knew she’d need to bide her time.
Here’s the problem. People move on. Katy Perry’s last legitimate blockbuster was probably “Roar” in 2013 (which sounded an awful lot like Brave). In 2012 she went all in for Barack Obama. This year, she performed at the Democratic Convention, singing hits from the time of Obama’s second inauguration.
Hillary Clinton had her moment, and it was in 2008. I and others suggested she break from the Democratic Party or run in 2012 on a platform of Obama’s incompetence. Instead, she and Bill went to Nixonian levels trying to amass enough power and influence that Democrats who turned on her in 2016 would end up committing suspicious suicide on themselves. She has made herself into the meat puppet that progressives found in Barack Obama eight years ago.
I need to start writing about Gary Johnson. This is getting too depressing.