Days of Change

Donald Trump and the Campaign of Doom | June 1, 2016

CBS’ The Big Bang Theory found a way to “ruin” Raiders of the Lost Ark for fans of the movie. After watching it, the girlfriend of an Indiana Jones super fan pointed out that Indy was not pivotal to the mission he was originally on. In other words, had he not shown up, the Nazis would have found the Ark of the Covenant, which they did anyway. They would have opened the Ark, which they did anyway, and the would have been destroyed by God, which the Nazis were anyway. Jones delayed the Nazis slightly, destroying many priceless artifacts in the process, and got the Ark sealed in some government warehouse.

So, I was starting to wonder. Is Donald Trump’s presence really making a fundamental impact on the presidential race? Is he perhaps just a loudmouth who doesn’t move the needle between likely Republican and likely Democrat voters? Trump may become the Republican nominee, but does he have a significant advantage over Ted Cruz?

Here’s some things to ponder.

  • People don’t like Hillary Clinton. In 2008, Clinton ran against several other candidates in a party that spent the last 5 years opposing the War on Terror. Clinton voted for that resolution and the other candidates went after her for it. I personally think Edwards might have been the nominee had Obama not doxxed him early on. This year, Clinton replicated her New York Senate success. She made sure all credible candidates¬†understood that opposing her would end their political careers. Bernie Sanders has no career prospects to speak of.
  • Disarray is becoming the Republican norm. There were 16 other Republicans listed by the media as running for the nomination other than Trump. Of the conservatives, it turned out Ted Cruz was most ready to campaign. The best middle of the road and qualified choice was Scott Walker, the choice of many current Trump supporters. The story is that Walker’s wife pulled the rip cord early on the campaign due to strife with the campaign manager. I doubt Walker will be a presidential candidate again.
  • Libertarians have a real shot at being marginalized… again. It looked like the Clinton-Trump axis of evil would push voters toward the Libertarian Party for once. Instead, the Green Party’s Jill Stein and some unknown named David French are being pushed as Hillary and Donald alternatives. High negatives for each candidate may be directed toward multiple hopeless candidates.
  • Hillary could be REALLY unlikable. The conspiracy scenario is that either the administration will blackmail Clinton with the e-mail thing or the e-mail thing will damage her so much that she’ll be forced to drop out for a pardon. Then the Democratic convention releases all the delegates when they ratify the rules and someone like Joe Biden gets the nomination.
  • Donald Trump doesn’t have much over Mitt Romney. I saw that Trump is polling a whopping 30% with Hispanics, just above the 28% Romney got in 2012. The last time a Republican won, he got 40% of the Hispanic vote. Since then, (2004) there are more Hispanics and fewer Whites voting. Both Romney and Trump are rich. Both have helped businesses and still have malcontents who can attack them. Both alienate segments of the Republican base.
  • Electoral math is bad for the GOP. The one way Donald Trump could be different is if he can truly run a national campaign to make Democrats deploy financial resources everywhere. If Trump wants to give 200 speeches at stadiums for the rest of the campaign, and all indications are that he does, that would be his one way to be Indiana Jones from the Temple of Doom instead of the Lost Ark.
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