Days of Change

Driving Trump | April 20, 2016

Donald Trump did exactly as well as he had to in New York. He got 60% of the popular vote and at least 91 delegates. He managed to beat John Kasich, his real competition, almost everywhere. Trump currently has 48% of delegates distributed and needs about 53% of the delegates still outstanding. He has a path to 1237 delegates.

Now, for the cold water. More than double the number of Democrats voted in New York than Republicans. The Democratic race was arguably more competitive, but that kind of turnout does not bode well for a Trump win in New York on Election Day. Trump’s average vote is still 35% and his average delegate take is still around 45%. It is mathematically impossible for him to reach 1237 pledged delegates before June 7.

We tend to remember general election losers more than those who fail to get a party nomination. Much like his supporters, Donald Trump thinks he can win the whole enchilada. How exactly did he think he was going to do it? The eleven dimensional chess crowd probably thinks what’s gong on is all to plan.  Somehow he planned to lose Iowa and Colorado, for example, as a way to attack Ted Cruz. My theory goes something like this.

Donald Trump wanted to run for president because he thinks making money makes him a genius. He didn’t want to go third party, even though he seems to hate everything about Republicans, because many states don’t put third parties on the ballot until they’ve succeeded in at least one previous election. He chose the Republicans because they could run against Hillary and Obama pretty well without having a strong affirmative platform.

Initially, Trump probably figured that his name recognition along with a platform of taking the strongest stand on certain conservative issues would give him an advantage up front. Then, a movement would grow and eventually he would be the obvious choice. Then Ted Cruz beat him in Iowa out of nowhere.

The Trump version of a nomination campaign began in earnest. His advantage over other campaigns is that he could self-finance. The other is that he’s cheap. Trump booked huge, inexpensive venues (like old airplane hangers) and gave charged, barn-burner speeches. He went on a non-stop attack on anything in his way, be it other candidates, George W. Bush, the Republican Party, Fox News or basically anyone representing any media organization. This continued for weeks. Eventually other candidates had to drop out because all they had was money and no popular support.

Then there’s Ted Cruz. Originally, Cruz was the true conservative that the party didn’t like. His secret weapon was a team that knew how to work caucus votes and run a successful campaign. Had he been approved by the GOP leadership, financial support and endorsements would have flowed to him. Instead, John Kasich is part of the Hail Mary plan to create a firewall against Trump. Since Kasich won a whole 4 delegates in New York and is now behind Trump in the next 6 states, refusing to back Cruz worked out for Trump.

Instead of gaining momentum, Trump has mostly stayed around 35%, sometimes getting in the 40’s, sometimes in the 20’s. New York is a fluke, the first time he got more than 49%. The anti-Trump contingent is still strong and it will cost the Republicans the election in November. I might vote for him, but Trump supporters already think I’m jealous and don’t share Trump’s awesome winning values. Trump thinks acting presidential for 1-2 days at a time will heal the rift in the party. Him losing the general election will heal it a lot faster.

Trump has a chance to win the nomination. I’m sure he thinks he can beat Hillary because he doesn’t understand how the media works. He was stymied for a week over an abortion question from Tingles. If he thought he didn’t have a chance, he would have dropped out by now. Then again, he’s also laying groundwork for his famous “I didn’t declare bankruptcy” routine with this conspiracy theory about state contests. I also read that he’s putting $20 million into securing the nomination, which sounds like he’s rolling the dice.


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  1. Trump supporters already think I’m jealous and don’t share Trump’s awesome winning values.>

    Excuse me, 15, but I refuse to be tarred with that brush. Further, it ain’t over till it’s over.

    Comment by Mary — April 20, 2016 @ 11:03 pm

    • I hung up my own shingle here in 2009 because I had a lot of things I wanted to say. Since then, I’ve been banned, suspended and demoted from other blogs. I also find that my opinions are not welcome depending on what they are.

      Mary, you are welcome to give any opinions you want. I know plenty of reasonable Trump supporters. I have also recently run into some really awful Trump supporters. Maybe I’m painting with too broad a brush, but that’s why I have my own blog. At the same time, I don’t believe in these global conspiracies where everyone in the “establishment” is trying to specifically take down Donald Trump. He’s just a man.

      Comment by 1539days — April 21, 2016 @ 12:23 am

      • 15,

        Many years ago, I heard a very wise woman say, “Give your support where you are supported.” Maybe those blogs that have berated you are unworthy of you. For example, why on earth would anyone accuse you of being “jealous” of a man with whom you are not in competition?

        Could it be time for you to fall back and regroup? I did just that when I left that blog where we first met, and I tell you that it was a very growth-stimulating decision for me.

        Comment by Mary — April 21, 2016 @ 11:14 pm

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