Days of Change

The Lethal Weapon Syndrome

April 17, 2016

If anyone reading at The Crawdad Hole is wondering why I comment less, here’s why. Virtually everyone there is either a Trump supporter or enjoys the chaos of a Trump campaign. I am tired of having my comments re-interpreted, being called an asshole or worse and interpreting my motives. I might be back around July when this thing is resolved one way or another.

I decided to answer “then what” about Ted Cruz winning on a second ballot. My answer is that he becomes the nominee. I didn’t realize the question was really “How can Ted Cruz win against Hillary?” I chose to stop there. There isn’t an answer to that question that won’t lead to one sided attacks. I was even attacked in absentia.

Now, I’m moving on to a more interesting question. How can Donald Trump win against Hillary? For the last couple of months, I have been leaning toward the answer that he doesn’t win. A Trump win at the GOP convention will be based on an average popular vote of 35% and the advantage of getting a plurality in a 3-12 way race. He does worse among Independents and Democrats than Republicans and he’s at about 50% among Republicans. His numbers are terrible with women. If there’s a third-party candidate, he will only take votes away from the Republicans.

Now, why are Trump supporters sure that he will beat Hillary. First, you have to believe in massive conspiracies. This isn’t just the liberal media. You have to believe that the networks, the cable news channels, the print media, Fox News and many conservative media, along with both parties, all have a secret, yet pervasive system in place that essentially encompasses everyone on Earth who isn’t you and Donald Trump. At the same time, you have to believe that Trump is a sort of Ayn Rand Superman who can break though this wall of opposition with the strength of his character and the will of his supporters.

Tactically, you have to believe in the legend of Ronald Reagan as ultimate cowboy. One of the stories about Reagan is that his detractors pained him as crazy and willing to push the button at a moment’s notice. That possibility forced the Soviets to deal with him because they didn’t want to get on his bad side. Most likely, the commies made a deal because their economy was a few years away from collapse and the USSR fell two years after Reagan left office.

I think of it more like “Lethal Weapon.” Mel Gibson played Riggs, a cop who was a little crazy and everyone thought was a lot crazy. Riggs was able to get things done no one else could because he didn’t do things the way everyone else did. Trump is an unconventional candidate and that alone seems to draw a substantial level of support.

My problem is that Riggs is more like Mel Gibson than people originally thought. After becoming a billionaire by going outside Hollywood to produce “The Passion of the Christ” he became more strange and isolated, erupting into racist rants around people. I’m not saying Trump is a racist. I am saying that there is a fine line between good crazy and bad crazy. In fact the line is so faint, I don’t want to pin my hopes on Martin Riggs for President.


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