Days of Change

Wyoming | April 16, 2016

Honestly, if the table of delegate counts and wins has as many notes as the ones around the web, it’s very hard to understand how they are awarded. However, Ted Cruz apparently won 14 of them today. I think that adds up to 23 including a previous caucus. Or maybe they’re unpledged. Then again, the people who won pledged themselves to Cruz.

Now Trump needs to grab about 500 of the less than 800 delegates not spoken for or assigned. Chances are that if Trump can’t win on a first ballot, he sure won’t win on a second. New York will go a long way to that goal, but those numbers are baked into the cake. The loss of even a handful of NY delegates will require the campaign to fight in remaining contests.

After New York, the race starts to look good for Kasich, except for the fact that he needs 130% of unpledged delegates to get the nomination. However, fewer than 1237 delegates for Trump means a second ballot at the RNC and that means Trump loses. At best, Kasich should settle for a VP slot in a Cruz administration.

By guessing at the math and current polling, Trump will continue to get about 45% of the delegates and need to get about 55% to get to 1237. Kasich has no shame and will continue to run. Cruz could very well reach the point of mathematical impossibility by April 26, but that same possibility is looming closer for Trump as well.

On the plus side, there’s almost a reason to vote Tuesday. On the minus side, I might have to vote for Kasich.

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1 Comment

  1. I might have to vote for Kasich

    Let love of country be your guide.

    Comment by Mary — April 17, 2016 @ 5:31 am


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