Days of Change

Slowmentum | April 2, 2016

Donald Trump’s early success was described by Sean Hannity as Trump’s ability to “defy conventional political gravity.” Not only did that seem to refer to going up, but never going down. It also could be read as Trump not accepting the gravity of the job of president and people liking that. I called it Indifference 2016.

The last time I averaged Trump’s popularity before the field went down to 2, (and a pointless John Kasich) he had an average of 35.2% of the vote in state contests. Since then, it has gone down to 34.7, thanks to some big wins by Ted Cruz. Still, Trump has only gotten a lower percentage of delegates than the percentage of the vote in 8 out of 38 contests. He knows how to make it count.

I happen to think that with only one real alternative, more than 50% of Republican voters will chose the Trump alternative. However, Trump’s early leads make it difficult to impossible for Ted Cruz to beat Trump outright. However, Trump cannot win outright until at least June 7, the last day of nominating votes. Kasich has no reason to be there, but Ted Cruz has a mathematical right to be there until the end.

This week, Donald Trump put another self-imposed barrier in his way, being bested by the biggest laughingstock in media, Chris Matthews. Unlike 2012’s “war on women” started by ABC in a GOP debate, the party did a better job of keeping hatchet jobs out of debates. So Trump was totally unprepared for one of the dumb politician questions that Republicans get constantly. Trump has been uncharacteristically backtracking over comments about punishing women who get abortions in a pro-life world. Theoretical as it may be, it’s not going to make headway in a general public who already doesn’t like Trump.

On the plus side, every Republican will have an effect on the nomination this year. Ted Cruz has a chance to make up ground and there are two months before Trump either wins or loses.

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  1. with only one real alternative, more than 50% of Republican voters will chose the Trump alternative.

    The other alternative, putting a woman in the White House who belongs in the Big House, means the end o the USA.

    Either we hang together, or we will surely hand separately.

    Comment by Mary — April 3, 2016 @ 3:27 am

    • I can understand that kind of fear based argument after the nomination, but I choose not to let it affect my observations during the primaries.

      Donald Trump does well in a field of 5 candidates. He doesn’t do well in a field of three candidates. When it’s just him and Hillary Clinton, the polling I’ve seen indicates that not only will Trump do poorly among Democrats and Independents, he’s not popular enough among Republicans.

      It’s not even a matter of support. I would probably vote for the Republican nominee regardless. I just don’t think he can win the election.

      Comment by 1539days — April 3, 2016 @ 1:01 pm

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