Days of Change

Brokered Back Mountain | March 31, 2016

A few weeks ago, a caller to the Sean Hannity show brought up a point about voting for numerically nonviable candidates, namely John Kasich. What if you were not motivated by keeping the delegate majority from Donald Trump but instead wanted to help give another candidate a larger plurality? This would make a Trump opponent viable for a longer amount of time.

Right now, Kasich needs 113% of the outstanding delegates. He won’t win the majority. Cruz needs a pretty significant 82% of outstanding delegates. So far, he’s gotten over 65% in just two states, Wyoming and Utah. Donald Trump needs 53%. While that seems to be a much more achievable figure, he hasn’t hit 50% in any state yet. Getting 53% in even his home state of New York is uncertain.

If Ted Cruz drops below the point where he could get 1237 delegates, I don’t know if I could definitively want him to drop out. Even if Trump won every single delegate in the next 3 states, Cruz would still have a theoretical path to victory. If Cruz won the next 3 states, Trump’s requirement jumps to 64%. Right now, Cruz has the lead in one winner-take all state and another more proportional state.

If Cruz doubled his current delegate count, Trump would be mathematically nonviable for a majority. If that makes Cruz a spoiler, remember Trump is getting close to not being able to have the majority of delegates as well. If you start adding in unpledged and (zombie) delegates belonging to other candidates, Trump’s claim to the mantle of top Republican isn’t set in stone.

The bottom line is, this isn’t over in April. If Cruz gets 35 delegates in the next month, it won’t be over until June 7.


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1 Comment

  1. I keep reading that Hillary is beating Trump in national polls. Considering that he hasn’t started on her yet, I’d say that’s a crock cooked up by Soros, Dems and the RNC. I’ll take your advice and wait till early June to see if he’s even the nominee. In the meantime, he needs to stop flapping hi lips.

    Comment by Mary — April 1, 2016 @ 1:25 am

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