Days of Change

Half Off | March 26, 2016

Now, Donald Trump is over halfway to the majority of delegates while Ted Cruz is just over a third of the way. Trump has won 20 states and Cruz has won 9. Here’s a fun fact. With only 19 states to go and about 900 delegates left, Donald J. Trump has yet to break 50% in any state. Cruz has topped 50% in 2 states out of 9, or 22%.

Even this week, Marco Rubio is still pulling significant numbers, partially due to the travesty of early voting. Trump also benefits from this ridiculous practice, with late deciders rarely going for Trump. Donald is “winning” with a non-majority plurality of votes.

If anyone can’t understand how Donald Trump can poll so badly against Hillary Clinton, just look at the GOP primary season. Trump has been using a numbers game to win winner take all states with the slimmest of pluralities while ignoring states with low delegates counts where he gets destroyed. Anyone who counters that Trump wins more Democrats and Independents in the primaries should realize that means he’s even less popular with Republicans than the polls would indicate in that case.

Even among Republicans, the anti-Trump vote is well over 50%. That works for him in what is still a 3-4 man race. However, he will only have one opponent in the general election. Republicans have a history of handing elections to Democrats when they can’t stand the Republican nominee. Even if Trump dropped out and Ted Cruz won, it might not save this election.

Putting my personal disdain for Trump aside, the numbers I see are not encouraging. These vapor polls and “gut feelings” that Trump will set the world on fire are not coming to pass in real life. If Ted Cruz is such a bad candidate, why can’t Donald Trump get even half the Republican voters to pick him?


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1 Comment

  1. why can’t Donald Trump get even half the Republican voters to pick him?

    Bad press, even from Repub friendly media like Fox with its vicious anti-Trump photo-journalism , who are only too anxious to accommodate the GOP establishment. I think maybe we won’t know the answer to your question until the convention.

    Comment by Mary — March 27, 2016 @ 4:12 am

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