Days of Change

Ben Carson’s Book Tour | March 11, 2016

Benjamin Carson officially endorsed Donald Trump today. This isn’t too surprising, of course. In a bid to damage a strong opponent, he validated the ego of a weak opponent. Someone with the Cruz campaign miscommunicated that Carson was leaving Iowa in preparation to quit. The truth was that Carson went back to Florida for his suits, which makes much less actual sense on the night of the caucuses. In any case, Carson did exactly as well as polls expected in the caucuses and continued to do just as poorly in other contests regardless of how many clean suits he had.

I would say a Carson endorsement of Trump will be about as effective as Fiorina’s endorsement of Cruz. Trump got 35.3% of the vote in New Hampshire in a 12 person race. Tuesday, he won Michigan with 36.5% in what was essentially a 4 person race. About 1/3 of Republicans want Trump and the rest haven’t decided who the alternative should be. This is not unlike 2012 where the majority of voters wanted a more conservative candidate than Mitt Romney, but they just couldn’t pick who and therefore got Romney.

Cruz and Trump have already stated that this is a two-man race if the goal is a delegate majority in June. Rubio and Kasich are the real chaos candidates. They have talked about the possibility of vote swapping, where Rubio supporters in Ohio and Kasich supporters in Florida vote for the other guy to secure Rubio and Kasich wins in both winner-take-all contests.


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1 Comment

  1. vote swapping

    “Fraud” is the more accurate term than swapping.

    Comment by Mary — March 12, 2016 @ 2:18 am

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