Days of Change

The Excitement Gap

September 10, 2014
1 Comment

Primary day in New York was not extremely surprising except that Democrat party participation was way down even with a contested Governor and Lieutenant Governor race. Andrew Cuomo won but faced the unfortunate reality that he will have to actually debate Republican Rob Astorino. This may not be indicative of every state, but things are not going very well for Democrats.

For comparison, I would look at 2002. This was an election year where there were no expectations of major gains. In fact, some Republican losses were expected. The coat tail theory was in effect, where Bush’s inability to gain Republican seats in 2000 would be worsened by an erosion of the GOP in Congress. This ended up not being the case, especially with the muddled response among Democrats to 9/11. The Republicans got the Senate back.

The prediction is that this may be a wave election without the wave. Republicans are tired of Obama, but so are many Democrats. If that holds up, Democrats will stay home and Republicans will win with a barely motivated base. While that would be hilarious, the Democratic machine can operate without Obama now. They will bang on doors, intimidate union members and drag people out of crack houses to the polls. The GOP needs to GOTV.


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