Days of Change

Day 1173 – The Two Man Race

January 21, 2012
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If delegates were all that mattered, Romney and Gingrich would be the front-runners. It’s not, but those two are the front-runners. My earlier predictions of a Romney, a not Romney and a Tea Party candidate may yet be accurate. Romney is Romney. Surprisingly, Ron Paul appears to be the Tea Party candidate and Gingrich is now the not Romney. That means Rick Santorum is out of luck.

Not only did Newt Gingrich win a primary, he won the biggest primary. He is the first to win a primary with more than 40% of the vote, no doubt due to the endorsement by Rick Perry. Santorum won Iowa with barely 25%. Mitt Romney got just under 40% in New Hampshire, running as a sort of native son.

This needs to happen. Even though I think Romney is the one who can bring the most money to a general election to beat Obama, Gingrich is also a credible candidate. Romney has to be able to beat Gingrich to be a real challenge to Obama. It’s Apollo vs Rocky now. The question is, will this be Rocky 1 or Rocky 2?


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Day 1172 – Fortune Favors the Bold

January 20, 2012
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What changed in the last day?

In a sense, very little. Romney and Santorum are still essentially tied in Iowa. Santorum was just able to get the slight edge in votes. Perry’s support hasn’t really budged in weeks, but he finally decided to drop out. This time, however, a departing candidate decided to endorse someone other than Romney.

Newt’s second ex-wife, (the one who cheated with him on his first wife and nearly divorced him later) gave an interview that did nothing but propose that Newt wanted to cheat while he was still married. I think history already teaches us that. I think Newt should send her flowers, because that gave him the moral victory at the debate last night, and a legitimate reason to call out the media.

At the same time, Santorum let the other shoe drop. Conservatives like Rick Santorum, but his comments on social issues have gotten him in trouble, like comparing homosexuality to bestiality. He tried to pile on Newt’s troubles, to the dismay of the audience. He went on the attack, but mostly came off as aggressive rather than assertive.

Romney was highly passive. His worst fumble was over his tax records. Gingrich pulled of a trick by releasing his tax returns during the debate. It made it a legitimate issue, like the marriage stuff. Mitt wants to save the tax returns for when he has the nomination. I guess he’s hedging his bets, pun intended.

The reversal of fortune could be short-lived, however. Romney is still a few points ahead of Gingrich. Santorum has the support of religious conservatives, and tea partiers are split between Ron Paul and the others.Romney will probably get back on track if he can manage a victory in South Carolina, but he may have to take Newt as his VP this summer.


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Day 1171 – Nomentum

January 19, 2012
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Mitt Romney went from two victories and a near win to a 1-1 record with an increasingly possible loss in South Carolina. Rick Santorum has won Iowa with a certified 34 vote (or 0.05%) lead.

Newt Gingrich was handed a gift today when his second ex-wife gave an interview to ABC claiming that Newt wanted an open marriage. Mind you, this was the woman who treated Newt’s first marriage as open since she was the mistress then. Also, contrary to popular belief, he didn’t leave her after she developed MS. She left him by taking all her stuff out of their house and filing for divorce before he came home. He’s been taking his indignation at the media to its full advantage today.

I think Newt won the night. He knows how to turn a phrase and get a standing ovation. Rick Santorum went negative, but he is quickly becoming the next Rick Perry. Ron Paul was Ron Paul. His supporters showed up en masse and he’ll still get single digits in SC. Every time he talks foreign policy, he loses more Republicans. The only thing he can do now is run third party. That will guarantee Obama’s reelection.

Mitt Romney is floundering. It’s what happened in 2008 as well. The party pushes back on his inevitability and he gets in trouble. Romney needs to get his hands dirty, instead of having his PAC do the hatchet job. Save the character destruction for the general election.

 


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Day 1170 – Blackout

January 18, 2012
2 Comments

I will / have protested SOPA by going dark today. I would like to call out places like Google and Facebook whose support of Obama in 2008 led them down this road.

People who trade liberty for Dear Leader don’t deserve liberty.


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Day 1169 – This is What a Vice President Looks Like

January 17, 2012
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In 1980, a fiscal conservative who touted the new idea of supply side economics in government budgeting was criticized by a fellow Republican challenger. The feud often became heated, but one chose the other as his running mate. For Reagan, George “Voodoo Economics” Bush was the attack dog he needed. I think Mitt Romney should consider his.

Newt Gingrich is a questionable administrator, is occasionally erratic, gets bored easily and rubs colleagues the wrong way. He’s also devastatingly intelligent, rarely at a loss for words and when he gets into a fight, he is absolutely tenacious. Those qualities are what you want in a Vice President. Mitt is no attack dog. He did his duty in 2008 as a surrogate for McCain, but he is better at letting money do the talking. When you need a real live person, Newt is the guy.

One of the McCain campaign’s many failures was keeping Sarah Palin from going negative. She’s a positive person and people love her for it. Still, Sarah knows how to throw a punch when she needs to. Apparently, John McCain preferred losing to explaining why Obama palled around with terrorists.

The Republicans are going to need someone to take on the media. Watch this.


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Day 1168 – The Big Mo

January 16, 2012
1 Comment

Michelle Obama celebrated Martin Luther King Jr. day by guest starring in Nickelodeon’s iCarly. That’s one day to get some free campaigning.

The Republican candidates are having a Fox debate tonight, which means they won’t be asked to specifically tear into each other on stage. Romney, Santorum and Gingrich are the only real remaining players. Perry is out of gas, but his financial backers are still dumb enough to carry him. Ron Paul never had a chance. Once the closed primaries start, his lack of Democratic and independent support will bring him into the low single digits among Republicans.

The only problem is momentum. Romney is still running in the 30s with no real second place challenger. Neither Gingrich nor Santorum have gathered any real steam. Gingrich has seen the most erosion and Santorum may have the edge with economic conservatives who are also social conservatives.

Stay tuned Saturday.


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Day 1167- Huntsman’s Out

January 15, 2012
6 Comments

I really hate WordPress tonight. I just lost 300 words of a post.

Anyway, Huntsman’s out and I don’t give a shit tonight.


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Day 1166 – Saving All My Love for You

January 14, 2012
3 Comments

Mike Huckabee’s second candidate forum was held this weekend in Charleston, South Carolina. There’s been quite a change since the last one. Jon Huntsman decided that his mediocre showing in New Hampshire demanded that he show up this time. Ron Paul declined this time, realizing that the idea of Ron Paul is more popular than what Paul has to say.

Jon Huntsman was a conservative governor from a conservative state. Romney was a mostly conservative governor from a liberal state. Both men have allowed the media to paint them as moderates, but not in SC. Their conservatism was well on display tonight. They drew both from their histories and outlined their intentions to cut spending and lower taxes.

Ironically, Newt Gingrich was the least popular candidate at the forum. He was peppered with questions about negative campaigning and his views about venture capital. When Gingrich tried to bring up Mitt Romney, (which was apparently against the rules) he was roundly booed.

I think conservatives have made themselves heard. It’s easy to say that Romney could say one thing and do another in office, but that’s possible with any candidate. It’s up to Congress to keep the president on track. One thing Romney did was use enough ad buys to erode support for Gingrich. Then he managed to make Gingrich look like the bad guy to other conservatives. I would really love to see him use that magic on Obama in the general election.


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Day 1165 – When Newt Gingrich Came to Town

January 13, 2012
1 Comment

I watched the Mitt Romney hit job from Winning Our Future PAC. Once the half hour mis-infomercial finishes, you are directed to the PAC’s site to tell you all of the great “issues” Newt believes in and all the babies Mitt Romney eats. Such is campaigning.

Ironically, Newt may be doing Romney a favor. In 2008, Republicans began to despise Romney’s negative campaign tactics against candidates like Mike Huckabee. Huckabee may very well have stayed in the race to keep conservative votes away from Romney. That negative campaigning also made McCain look like the more grown up candidate.

Even though Gingrich is probably near the end of his effective time on the stage, his relentless attacks (compared to the sad tantrums of loser Rick Perry) are making Romney sympathetic. When the left attacks Romney on his religion, he’ll have a comparison for unfair attacks. Don’t underestimate the counter-intuitiveness of an election season. If elections made sense, Obama wouldn’t be president.


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Day 1164 – Waterloo

January 12, 2012
3 Comments

South Carolina tends to end campaigns. One reason Obama was able to take the Democratic nomination was that Hillary Clinton did not want to take down the party fighting for it. The first sustained call of racism was after South Carolina, when Bill Clinton responded to Barack Obama’s victory by recalling that also-ran Jesse Jackson managed the same win in 1984. Clinton wanted to take Obama down a peg by downplaying his importance. Instead, he was considered a racist because Obama is always perfect.

Hillary’s campaign responded by giving Bill the Sarah Palin treatment. He could rally the crowds, but he wasn’t allowed to speak extemporaneously. The fact is, Bill knows how to win. When he was running in 1992, there was no cabinet position waiting for him. It was back to backwater Arkansas if he lost. He threw everything but the kitchen sink into the fight. Hillary Clinton almost had too many options. She made the mistake McCain eventually repeated, thinking this campaign was about the better idea. She might as well had dropped out.

Anyone who’s not Mitt Romney is being offered the same choice now. Stop trying to destroy Mitt and just give up already. One thing that makes me like Newt Gingrich is that he wants to campaign on ideas, but if someone takes a shot at him, he’ll keep punching until he’s out of punches. I have no doubt he can best Obama in a debate. I’m also starting to think he can go negative enough to beat Obama down as well.

Romney, for all his blandness, is a good manager. When he wins the nomination, he will raise more money than Obama and go more negative than Obama. He will be called a racist and an idiot and the destroyer of worlds. It won’t matter. His ads will create the narrative and it’s that Obama sucks and he’s not getting any better. As for the attacks on him now, it’s good for Mitt. It’ll toughen him up.


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