Days of Change

Day 363

November 2, 2009
1 Comment

Tomorrow will produce the narrative for the next 6 months. It will either be a serious defeat for the administration, (Republican clean sweep of VA, NJ and NY-23) a sign of things to come (VA and NJ)  or a chance to spin the results (wins by Democrats in NY and NJ).

Deeds in VA went under the bus early and Jackass was sure to keep the loser stink off him by last week. NJ is close, with Christie pulling ahead from anti-incumbent sentiment. NY-23 will be one to watch. Hoffman has the thinnest of leads, with the only other Republican (sorta) dropping out and then backing the Democrat. That will be determined by how popular Scozzafava is as a candidate and not a party representative. Is there still 10% out of her 15% that is solidly Republican?

There will be a battle among Republicans for party identification. If Owens wins, that battle will start immediately. The GOP will blame conservatives for splitting the vote. Conservatives will tell the GOP that the tea party movement is about ideas and not picking one side whose watered down ideology is nearly indistinguishable from the other. Still, the message will get across. The big tent is conservatives plus Republicans who believe in something, not any disparate group that wants to call itself Republican out of temporary convenience.

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