Days of Change

Day 352 – The 35% Solution

Conservatives have criticized Newt Gingrich for supporting Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 Congressional race. He’s in the strange company of ACORN (aka the Working Families Party of NY) and the Daily Kos. I heard his explanation tonight that the more conservative candidate needs to win a party primary before he can support them. First of all, the Republican “establishment” in New York chose Scozzafava and put financial backing behind her. Plus, the Republican Party is at about 20% approval. The Democrats are only about 35% but that may be enough.

Secondly, Gingrich is a Republican first and a Conservative second. That means he mostly used the Contract with America as a tool to get the Republicans into Congress. Now that the conservative movement has been injured and put int he hospital, Newt is handing it divorce papers.

This is not how you win elections. 1994 was two years after an election where the winner got 43% of the popular vote and the third-party candidate probably spoiled the election. Given the situation that Democrats were already in charge of everything and independent meant crazy conspiracy theorist megalomaniac, a Republican revolution was excellent marketing.

In 2009, people who don’t hate the Republicans hate the Democrats and the majority of Americans are sick of both. This is the worst time to come up with liberal Republican hybrids to tank elections. It looks to voters like the party is playing politics and it is.

2010 will be a referendum on everyone. The swing group is tired of politics as usual and wants a different direction. For Tea Party protestors that way is libertarianism, which has less support than the Conservative Party. Luckily, most of them will side with a conservative Republican who’s light on the social issues. Liberal Democrat support is around 35%. In a 2 way race, it’s a massacre. In a 3 way race, it’s the margin of victory.