Day 367 – Gay or Muslim?

This is going to be controversial, to say the least.

There was a reason to keep homosexuals out of the government at one time. By necessity, being gay meant being in hiding. Having a secret makes one vulnerable to blackmail. Eventually, however, it became a vicious circle. It was socially acceptable to be “out,” but it was still illegal in a military position. Don’t ask, don’t tell took out the presumption of a witch hunt, but it still occurred, since finding out was as bad as telling.

I think that this country has reached a point where being gay is not something to be happy about, but still someone’s own business. No one really wants to know about someone’s sexuality in general. Keeping people out of government because of sexual orientation is quickly becoming unbelievable.

At the same time, the government is bringing in more and more Muslims into extremely sensitive jobs. The impetus is that the need for Arab translators is so great, that vetting is less than thorough. Add to that the presumption that Muslims are in some sort of danger of being discriminated and you have a non-critical view of people who at any other time might not get a job like that.

People who know Arabic are likely first or second generation immigrants. They are highly prone to sympathize with Muslim extremism and can easily slip in, having divided loyalties at the outset. It’s not politically correct, but these applicants must be screened more heavily.

The culmination of both groups is that the government has fired loyal gay American translators in favor of Muslims with dubious backgrounds. There have been cases of Arabic translators who have been converted by radical Islamic propaganda. I know who I’d prefer.

Day 366

And we are in year 2. Only 1173 days until the next Inauguration. Now it looks like Jackass lost any credibility on stopping terrorism. Even if it is disgruntled deployment cowardice in Fort Hood, it shines the light on this president having no idea what to do in Afghanistan after running for a year and being president for 9 months. He’s been getting by with a plan Bush wrote, all the time blaming him for having no plan.

The health insurance reform fight will be pushed to next year. That will put it at the beginning of the primary process. The Republicans, the liberals and the tea party movement need to field candidates now. NY-23 should be especially muddled. At least now some of the people will decide who runs.

Night 365

My opinion of NY-23 is a win is a win. The Democrat won the race. There were reasons for that outcome, but I’ve written before that Democrats could win three-way races with just 40% of the vote.

Given that, I have some perspective about how NY-23 went down. Call it the ingredients of spin. Here are 8 reasons why it happened.

1. Doug Hoffman was not running as a Republican. The Republican party lost this race on Saturday when Scozzafava dropped out. Hoffman ran under the Conservative Party line. The Republican Party did not endorse him, the NRCC only endorsed him after Scozzafava quit in a desperate attempt to keep a Democrat out of the race.

2. Bill Owens is an empty suit. No one really cared about him as a candidate. The only thing I know about him is that silly dairy industry ad he did. Hoffman talked about his credentials a lot and went on more national media than the other candidates. Scozzafava hid out, called the police when reporters asked her questions and was vetted by the conservative bloggers who knew more about her record than the Republicans who endorsed her.

3. Dede Scozzafava was unpopular all along. While she was ahead of Owens briefly, she never passed 35%. The fact that 46% of total voters would choose Conservative Hoffman on Election Day tends to prove that Scozzafava would never have gotten enough undecideds to win.

4. The story goes that 11 Republican representatives of the counties in the 23rd district met at a pizza parlor and chose Scozzafava to run. Hoffman stated on the Sean Hannity radio show that as few as 4 were needed to choose her if they spoke for the largest counties. I’m not a fan of the primary process in NY, but it might have put the brakes on what turned out to be a bad decision.

5. The NRCC (Republican Congressional Committee) gave about $1 million to the Scozzafava campaign. Some of that money was used to drive up Hoffman’s negatives as he became bigger competition than Owens. Hoffman was forced to respond in kind, but attacked Scozzafava and Owens as being the same. Owens attacked Scozzafava and Hoffman as being the same. Scozzafava was unable to equate Owens with Hoffman.

6. The Conservative Party of New York exists to kick Republicans’ asses into doing what they want. It was never really set up to campaign for a seat. The effort was somewhat disorganized with little professional staff and big names getting perhaps too involved. Still, Hoffman gained approximately 1% of the vote every day for a month. In another week, he might have won.

7. Scozzafava’s ACORN ties (via NY’s Working Families Party) began to show by last weekend. She suspended her campaign on Saturday without endorsing a candidate. After some undisclosed meetings with high-level Democrats, she endorsed Owens on Sunday. She was also able to scorch the earth where she suffered a defeat.

8. For weeks, the Democrats had nothing to do but campaign. Owens was able to go to local communities and talk about milk prices and stimulus pork til the cows came home, literally. Hoffman vs. Scozzafava was about national issues, none of which had to do with the Obama administration.

Day 365 – One Year

In one year, the stock market went up 1.8%.

In one year, presidential approval went from 75% to below 50%. In one year in 2001, Bush approval was over 30 percentage points higher.

In one year, nearly 6  million more people are now jobless.

In one year, the deficit has increased to $2 trillion.

In one year, the only major legislation enacted was a $1 trillion spending bill that hasn’t been spent.

In one year, we held the line.

In one year, a political party went from living in glory to living in fear.

In one year, we learned to fight back.

Day 364

Ever wonder how the election of 2008 would have been different if John McCain’s and Sarah Palin’s positions on the ticket had been reversed? With her personality, her instincts and her outsider credentials, she would have won.

Sarah Palin would have won.

Tonight may or may not make Palin a kingmaker. NY-23 is too close to call. It also had about all the disadvantages the conservatives could get. The Republicans ignored conservative values. A third-party candidate stepped in with a short election cycle, and the GOP darling threw a tantrum and endorsed the Democrat in the final weekend. Still, Hoffman got 10% more support tonight than Scozzafava did in any poll this year.

Palin may be a dethroner. Besides Scozzafava, she knocked Chris Dagget’s 18% down to 6% with an ellipses. She is proving to be one of the few political conservatives who held elected office speaking out for those values.

The GOP has learned tonight that conservative principles are not losing issues. They still may not have learned they are winning ones. The Republican party can never hold enough RINOs in their big tent. They can get conservatives. They’ve done it before. They can start opening up that tent by throwing fat Newt out and embracing svelte Sarah.

Day 363

Tomorrow will produce the narrative for the next 6 months. It will either be a serious defeat for the administration, (Republican clean sweep of VA, NJ and NY-23) a sign of things to come (VA and NJ)  or a chance to spin the results (wins by Democrats in NY and NJ).

Deeds in VA went under the bus early and Jackass was sure to keep the loser stink off him by last week. NJ is close, with Christie pulling ahead from anti-incumbent sentiment. NY-23 will be one to watch. Hoffman has the thinnest of leads, with the only other Republican (sorta) dropping out and then backing the Democrat. That will be determined by how popular Scozzafava is as a candidate and not a party representative. Is there still 10% out of her 15% that is solidly Republican?

There will be a battle among Republicans for party identification. If Owens wins, that battle will start immediately. The GOP will blame conservatives for splitting the vote. Conservatives will tell the GOP that the tea party movement is about ideas and not picking one side whose watered down ideology is nearly indistinguishable from the other. Still, the message will get across. The big tent is conservatives plus Republicans who believe in something, not any disparate group that wants to call itself Republican out of temporary convenience.

Day 362 – B – The Final Battle

The Syfy channel is airing the two groundbreaking miniseries that made up the V saga in the 1980s. This was science fiction at it’s best, telling a familiar story in an entertaining way. At its heart, it was a story about the resistance that would not trade comfort for liberty.

It’s easy to be against a bunch of creepy lizards who want to eat all of mankind. It’s more difficult to look at a group of people with vastly superior technology offering to solve all your problems. The real question is what price would you pay for those gifts?

This was a question brought about over the kind of surveillance and confinement being used in the War on Terror. The connection to most Americans was tangential and the trade-off was safety. The people ultimately made voting decisions based on these issues.

What about now? We are being offered a country where the government “regulates” more than it ever has before. By regulate, they want to even out the highs and the lows with laws and government money taken from those who earn the most. Good or bad, the effect will be on almost all of us and the trade-off is the future.

The end of all tyrannies is revolution. That revolution can take dramatic form or just be an agent of change. What’s that line? Do you see the erosion of freedom as a call to action? Do you wait until you see the persecution of others or do you wait until your own persecution?

Day 361

NY-23 just got more interesting. DeDe Scozzafava decided to “suspend” her campaign 4 days before the election. She went from being the frontrunner in a two person race to dead last in a 3 person race.

This is something of a non-story. Her biggest proponents were Newt Gingrich and the Daily Kos. Once conservative Republicans and independents learned about Doug Hoffman, her star fell fast.

If Hoffman wins, it gives a big boost to the independent, conservative, tea-party movement. He will be the first unaligned member of Congress elected since Joe Lieberman in 2006. The Daily Kos supported Lieberman’s opponent, too. It also regains political clout to Sarah Palin, who did more in a Facebook post than the rest of the media to publicize Hoffman.

If Owens wins, it will be by default. He was billed as a blue dog Democrat and does not have a record to defend. There are over 400 members of Congress who will have to explain why the bills that passed were allowed. It will be the only lesson the Republican Party will get to change their ways and be on the side of the American people.

Three days to go.

Day 360

It seems that Jackass’ allies are starting to lose their steam. This health care monstrosity is a sign of desperation more than bravado. If they can’t get a coalition of even their own party, they’ll pass it and bully enough people to get it to Jackass.

Hope and Change has become Lies and Threats. Even worse, when Democrats get taken down on election day, red state Democrats will have to face the very real possibility of losing their seats in 2010. It’s now up to the people of three states to send a message.

Day 359 – Run Off

I continue to think of things that could keep democracy out of the dust bin of history. There’s term limits, of course. I also don’t think much about the direct election of Senators, considering the power they wield and the tendency of national parties to use them for anything but state interests. Now I’ve fallen in love with another concept, the runoff.

Runoff elections are fairly uncommon but enforce what should be a universal concept. No candidate wins an election in certain areas without winning 50% of the vote. If they don’t get the majority because of 3-4 candidates, the top two run head-to-head. Not only does this keep a loser from winning with 35% of the vote, it encourages third (and fourth, etc) party candidates.

No vote is wasted. If 3 people run and the independent “spoiler” get second place, they can now run against the “established” candidate on an equal footing. If the independent loses, the mainstream candidates will run unencumbered and the people will have had a chance to make their voice heard.

Imagine for example, if the 1992 (or 1996) presidential campaign had a runoff between Bush and Clinton. Who would have won? Was Perot really about not liking Bush or was the anti-Clinton sentiment enough for him to lose? What about 2000? That sliver of Nader support might have made a difference.

We have two major three-way races next week. If the Republicans win, it will be a blow for the third-party movement. If the Democrats win, it may be a blow for everyone. If the independents win, it will be a miracle. But then, I read Doug Hoffman was an accountant with the 1980 US Hockey team.